NFL franchises use contextualized data to create competitive advantages. In order to realize an edge, teams need to employ the right data in the right way at the right time. This means distilling, interpreting and applying only the most influential data in a framework that accounts for personnel, opponents and evolving game situations. My goal is to be your analytics department. Each week this season, I want to work for you by giving you a peek into which numbers flag in my models as the most impactful ... or the most misunderstood.
Happy playoffs! We made it! All Super Bowl 55 live regular-season games were played. I don't know about you, but I count that as really special -- a testament to what a great plan and excellent execution can do. And now we get to enjoy an expanded postseason tournament.
With the increase to seven teams in each conference's playoff field, only one on each side receives a bye. Consequently, that coveted off week becomes an even bigger factor in my models when it comes to projecting who will make it to (and win) the Super Bowl. In the past, the top two teams from each conference often comprised more than 60 percent of the "make it to the Super Bowl" pie, with the difference between them being huge if it was even five percent. This season, in the AFC, the bye nearly doubles the Chiefs' chances versus the next-closest team (Bills). The NFC is a bit different, but that's due, in part, to the Packers suddenly losing a star at a key position (left tackle David Bakhtiari) and the Saints getting one back (wide receiver Michael Thomas).
So, what do my models project? Here's a quick look at all 14 teams' percentage chances of reaching -- and winning -- Super Bowl LV:
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